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Merry Christmas
A Christmas note from a Christian scribbler
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Firas Modad
Erdogan's jihadis and the new borders of the Middle East
After his shared victory with Israel in the Syrian civil war, Erdogan has thousands of foreign fighters that his intelligence services can clandestinely…
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Firas Modad
The coming strike on Iran
A large Israeli strike on Iran is increasingly likely, risking regime stability after Khamenei's succession
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Firas Modad
Damascus' Fall and Risks to Jordan
How the risk profile of the Hashemite Kingdom changes as a result of Assad's overthrow
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Firas Modad
Syria and the coming chaos
With Assad gone, Türkiye is the only significant decisionmaker. Israel, Gulf Arab states, and Iran may collaborate to act as spoilers.
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Firas Modad
The Fall of Damascus and the Death of Ataturk
Examining the regional and civilisational implications of the likely fall of Damascus.
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Firas Modad
1
The UnitedHealthcare assassination and peasant revolts
The conflict between the elites and the public takes a new and dark twist, with worse yet to come.
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Firas Modad
The US goes for Hezbollah's jugular
Understanding the Syria escalation and how it can draw Iran and Türkiye deeper into conflict.
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Firas Modad
The Future is Racist
Why ethnicity and religion will play an important role in European and American politics, and how that changes the West's economy and geopolitics.
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Firas Modad

November 2024

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