Modad Geopolitics
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Hormuz remains closed
Iran trying to force the USA to restrain Israel in Lebanon
11 hrs ago
•
Firas Modad
3
Iran: The Regional Hegemon?
If the fragile ceasefire holds, the war intended to cement Israeli hegemony would have spectacularly backfired.
Apr 8
•
Firas Modad
8
The limits of the madman theory
Geopolitics untethered from reason produces disaster.
Apr 7
•
Firas Modad
14
1
1
Most Popular
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The Iranians warn of the Samson Option.
Mar 1
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Firas Modad
41
1
7
Decade of sorrows
Oct 28, 2025
•
Firas Modad
26
2
5
India Pakistan War Risks
Apr 25, 2025
•
Firas Modad
26
2
9
Understanding the Epstein Files
Feb 4
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Firas Modad
23
3
The Future is Racist
Dec 2, 2024
•
Firas Modad
21
4
Endless escalation, with no plan in sight
Mar 22
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Firas Modad
23
3
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Re-thinking the drivers of the Iran War
And, therefore, its duration and its targets, including Greenland and Canada.
Apr 3
•
Firas Modad
4
2
The collapse of restraint, and the global economy
Trump attempts a deal, fails, and escalates. Now the Iranians will target every American business and diplomatic asset.
Apr 2
•
Firas Modad
7
1
1
Trump prepares to declare victory
Trump's withdrawal from the war would raise the risk of chaos in the region as it adjusts to Iranian power and the ineffectiveness of American…
Apr 1
•
Firas Modad
11
3
Climbing the Escalation Ladder
Long War, Rationing, Strikes, & Ground Operations against the GCC.
Mar 28
•
Firas Modad
4
Trump delays an inevitable, impossible choice
Ten minutes after publishing the article below, Trump backed down, temporarily.
Mar 26
•
Firas Modad
8
1
Kuwait and UAE Warning
American ground operations against Iran would severely raise risks to critical infrastructure in the GCC
Mar 26
•
Firas Modad
11
2
Strategic Risk Brief: Ending the war would end Pax Americana.
Negotiations while ground operations are being prepared means that negotiations will fail, with catastrophic effects.
Mar 25
•
Firas Modad
10
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Modad Geopolitics
Clear, concise and commercial geopolitical analysis from Firas Modad. Focused on the Middle East and great power conflict.
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