US strikes on Yemen
With the decision to bomb Yemen, the US has accepted an increased risk of attacks on aviation, energy, shipping and infrastructure in the region.
The limits of air power.
The limits of airpower - and technology more broadly - were demonstrated in Israel’s failures in the 1993, 1996 and 2006 Lebanon wars, and in the numerous wars against Gaza. Even in the current war, Hamas is still firing rockets into Tel Aviv.
Notably, the limits of airpower were demonstrated in the 2004-2011 Six Sa’ada Wars, in which Ansar Allah (Houthi) fought against the Yemeni government, which was backed by Saudi aviation. These limits were demonstrated again in the 2015-2023 Yemeni civil war and war with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The 2015-2023 war involved Saudi Arabia’s use of American aircraft, advisors, trainers, bombs, maintenance teams, and intelligence. Ansar Allah not only won anyway, but they also significantly expanded their military capabilities along the way.
It is unrealistic to believe that more American bombs will make a substantial difference. Rather, it is more accurate to assume that the Houthi will pursue a measured policy of escalation intended to serve the Iran-led Resistance Axis’ objective of expelling the US from the region, as I have argued since the start of the 7 October War. It is also more accurate to assume that the Houthi will be able to continue their strikes for at least several months, and probably indefinitely.
The US is entering this confrontation without a strategy, as we have argued here. That itself is a bad sign.
Targeting and escalation pathways
In this section, you will find the targets the Houthi are most likely to hit, and the most likely types of targets/sectors within these countries. We discuss aviation, energy targets, shipping, the Houthi’s attack dynamics, their objectives, the likely level of damage, and indicators that the attacks will stop. If you want to see the content behind the paywall without becoming a paid subscriber, you can contact us directly on LinkedIn.
In a statement yesterday, Ansar Allah said what Modad Geopolitics had repeatedly predicted: any country allowing the use of its territory or airspace to aircraft involved in bombing Yemen will be a target.
Our view is that the order of targeted countries will be…