Ukraine: The US Steps Back
America is not interested in backing Ukraine for now, intensifying internal conflicts between rival Ukrainian factions. American economic pressures on Europe will follow to bring her back to reality.
In a stormy press conference in the Oval Office, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky rejected diplomacy with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This led to a dressing down by American President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, who reminded him of Ukraine’s weak position, its severe manpower shortage, and its dependence on foreign support. Zelensky was then apparently kicked out of the White House, and left America early to go to London, where he was welcomed by some European leaders and Justin Trudeau.
Zelensky had wanted security guarantees for any negotiated settlement with Russia, which the US would not provide: simply, the US had no strategic interest in Ukraine other than as a cudgel against Russia. Now, the US wants to reconcile with Russia to separate it from China.
The Trump Doctrine
British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron had both visited the US to try to get a “backstop” for Ukraine, in which America would guarantee the safety of European peacekeepers sent to Ukraine. However, the Americans refused.
Trump pointedly asked Starmer if Britain could take on the Russians on its own. Starmer squirmed uncomfortably. Europe is militarily depleted, and the source of European panic is that the Ukrainian army is the second most powerful European army - after Russia’s.
Recall that Britain and France required extensive US support to take on Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. The European defence establishment has atrophied considerably since then, with budget cuts, the rise of wokeness, and weapons transfers to Ukraine crippling European armed forces.
European leaders bought into American DEI, wokeness, and visceral hatred of Russia, but seem unable to adjust to the new American reality. They cannot accept that Russia was always a major player in European security. Worse, they do not understand that Putin is just another Tsar, and a liberal one by Russian standards, rather than another Hitler. European leaders insist on living in fantasyland.
Commercial Implications:
Trump wants to discipline Europe and remind her of her place as a vassal. His perspective is that Europeans have been freeriding on American security for at least three and a half decades. They need to be reminded who the boss is.
With the spectacle of the Europeans giving Zelensky the red carpet treatment after Trump threw him out of the Oval Office, Trump now has an interest in showing how fragile Ukraine is without American backing.
Ukraine’s Troubles
Critically, if the Ukrainians lose American support for their communications and intelligence, their ability to stop Russian offensives would decrease dramatically. We would see larger Russian gains more rapidly.
Infighting between the faction of former President Petro Poroshenko and former Army of Chief of Staff Valerii Zaluzhnyi, on the one hand, the pro-Zelensky faction, is set to intensify, and will accelerate with military setbacks.
With Zelensky losing American support, the odds of a coup, an assassination, or worse, open infighting, are now much higher.
Defence Secretary Peter Hegseth has already ordered a halt to American cyberattacks on Russia, indicating that the next step is to stop backing Ukraine’s cyber defence. The step after that is to stop backing other types of Ukrainian defence.