Ukraine: Donetsk front collapsing

The coming battle for Pokrovsk will be a key indicator of the trajectory of the war. The deployment of F-16s will have a minimal impact. The Kursk offensive will backfire.

Commercial Summary: Russian forces are heading to the city of Pokrovsk, behind which Ukraine’s defences are much sparser. Russian success in Pokrovsk would lead to faster advances towards the Dnieper. Russia’s military position is likely to improve dramatically by mid-late 2025, even as it is likely to again partially mobilise in late 2024. Ukraine’s Ku…