The Ramadan escalation
Changes to maritime risks in the Red Sea and Mediterranean, risks to Israeli energy infrastructure, and why Israel needs the war to escalate to survive.
Commercial summary: The Iran-led Resistance Axis is set to escalate throughout the region, impacting European shipping in the Red Sea, Israeli infrastructure, shipping in the Mediterranean and US bases in Iraq and Syria. Israel is vulnerable to a decisive defeat at Iran’s hands in the coming decade, meaning that there is a strategic logic for it to respond to this escalation in a manner that expands the war and draws the US in. That low probability-high impact scenario would be a game changer.
The Iran-led Resistance Axis intends to escalate in Ramadan (11 March - 10 April), for the following reasons:
Religious: Martyrdom in Ramadan is more appealing, and the need for Muslims to support fellow Muslims is greater.
Political: As famine commences in Gaza, there is greater reason to pressure Israel and ensure that Western capitals do not get accustomed to a new normal in Gaza. Furthermore, Hamas is saying that Israel is refusing a ceasefire based on the terms it is willing to offer, meaning that Hamas’ backers are willing to support it to help it achieve its demands. Otherwise, Hamas would have accepted Israel’s terms.
Strategic – regional: Hamas would be in a stronger position after the war if increased military pressure by the Iran axis prevents Israel from attacking Rafah.
Strategic – global: The Iran – China – Russia axis would benefit from the US being more drawn into the Middle East - albeit below the threshold of the US actually fighting Iran - as this makes it easier for Russia to keep improving its situation in Ukraine and for China to go after Taiwan.
Escalation details:
As explained here, the Resistance Axis does not open hostilities at full power with “Shock and Awe” tactics, but, rather, it uses a “David’s Sling” approach where strategic surprise weapons are used show the vulnerability of some key military or civilian asset. The resultant demoralisation of the other side then facilitates extracting political concessions from it. The Resistance Axis therefore opts for gradual escalation until it achieves the strategic objectives it seeks. This is aimed at managing the scale of the conflict, while accepting the risk of uncontrolled escalation, since the other side – in this case, Israel and the US – also gets a vote.
Iraqi factions have said that they struck a power station in Haifa airport, which is co-located with an Israeli Air Force base and is adjacent to the port. It appears that this claim has not been accepted by the public yet, similar to Houthi claims of attacking Abu Dhabi airport in 2018, that were only confirmed after two years. As such, we expect the coming escalation to be more obvious. We also expect the escalation to include elements of the following:
Israel proper
Attacks on Israeli key infrastructure including power stations, airports and offshore energy, likely conducted out of Iraq or Syria.
Attacks on Israeli shipping in the Mediterranean, and on the infrastructure of Haifa port, conducted out of Iraq and Syria.