The Next Azeri - Armenian War
Azerbaijan is planning another war against the Armenians. The question is who will be drawn in.
Statements from Azeri leader Ilham Aliyev indicate that Azerbaijan is close to launching another war against Armenia, this time to size the Zangezur corridor, which separates the Nakhichevan exclave from Azerbaijan.
The logic for the next war is to allow Turkey and Azerbaijan to fully consolidate against Armenia and to create enough space for the land connection between the two to be fully secured. This in turn would grant the Turks much easier access to Central Asia, in line with Turkish ethnic and religious ambitions. Furthermore, Armenia is trying to rearm after its defeat in 2020. Azerbaijan may wish to escalate before Armenia integrates new systems into its arsenal.
For China, this would secure the Middle Corridor, a supply chain connecting China to Europe via Central Asia and Turkey. This would be a competitor to the existing Northern Corridor, which links China to Europe mostly via Russia. As we have said for some time, the main beneficiary of weakening Russia is not the West, but China.
The key question is how do the Russians and Iranians react. For Iran, Azeri success would have two implications:
It would be another defeat for the Islamic Republic and the Islamic Revolution. It would further discredit the existing regime. This time, however, it would be right on Iran’s borders.
It may kindle Azeri separatism, with the aim of uniting the Azeris in a greater Azerbaijan. That in turn would rekindle Kurdish separatism, and perhaps Arab and Baloch separatism.
The Iranians, however, are in a bind.
There is no clear legitimacy for sending Iranians to fight a war against Azeris in defence of Armenian Christians. And if the war goes badly, it may accelerate the delegitimisation of the Islamic Republic and perhaps even various civil wars that disintegrate Iran itself.
Furthermore, if the war goes badly, Turkey would be even more emboldened to take northern Syria and northern Iraq in a bid to ensure its own energy security and solve its current account balance problem.
Last, there is no military logic in sending soldiers to defend the Zangezur Corridor, with very vulnerable supply lines and unclear odds of success. The more militarily sound option is to attack Azerbaijan directly, but that would be a major political escalation that risks drawing in Turkey directly.
It appears that the Iranians are damned if they do, damned if they don’t. There is a strong logic to fight this war, defeat Azerbaijan and secure Iran as a national-Shia state. There is also a strong logic to avoid such a conflict at all costs. There are enormous risks from involvement, and from lack of involvement.
As for the Russians, they are already committed in Ukraine. And they need Turkey on side economically, while they focus on that conflict. They also have a partnership with Turkey in Africa. They do not need additional conflicts with the Turks right now.
Outlook:
Another Azeri war on Armenia seems very likely in 2025.
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