The Future is Racist
Why ethnicity and religion will play an important role in European and American politics, and how that changes the West's economy and geopolitics.
Commercial Summary: Hostility against immigration will intensify. It will morph into religious, cultural, ethnic and racial conflict, simply because that is how people organise and identify. Critically, this debate will not be not merely political or academic, but will have commercial effects: international trade, movement of labour, investments, automation, energy and geopolitics will be impacted.
If, a few months ago, you had said that British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would both come out attacking immigration and calling for its halt, you would have been laughed out of the room.
Yet that is precisely what has happened. Immigration has become such a problem that its biggest advocates are now disavowing it, giving license to all and sundry to criticise immigration and opening the Overton Window for a much broader discussion.
We touch on the likely coming discussions and their commercial impact, below.
Conflict over migration will grow
In the West, the power of ethnic minorities has never been greater. It is worth recalling that that is unusual: there is no non-Indian or non-Chinese population with disproportionate power over India or China.
Observe the way that Western leaders cower in the face of spurious allegations of racism, the manner in which petty criminals like George Floyd or Chris Kaba are elevated to public sainthood, and the hostility to any political organisation that is proud of its ethnic European heritage. Yet, no one objects to groups that are proudly black or Asian or Arab.
Minority special interest groups may be tolerable in times of prosperity. In tough times, however, it is the minorities who receive disproportionate blame, often unfairly so.
The West is no longer able to offer its citizens good times. The poly-crisis inflicted by bad foreign policy, expensive energy (largely driven by Net Zero ideology), free trade with mercantilist China, collapsing industry, an expensive welfare state, and declining quality of services, is creating very rough economic conditions. The youth cannot afford homes. They expect a lower standard of living than their parents. And it is obvious that immigration is partly to blame for these economic conditions.
We therefore expect a growing awareness among the native European population, and among white Americans, that almost all human conflict is organised along ethnic and religious lines. Immigration will be a focal point of this awareness.
Immigration and economics
Immigration provides businesses with cheap labour. In doing so, it not only depresses wages for low-skill jobs, but it also robs the youth of low-skill starter jobs, setting back their careers.
Immigration also increases demand for housing, cheap food and cheap goods. This boosts aggregate demand, but, due in part to the negative effect on wages, it also kills small businesses. Local small businesses need either a comfortable working class or a middle class clientele to prosper, as, due to their lack of economies of scale, they require a higher profit margin.
As such, mass migration benefits big corporations that operate at razor thin profit margins, and that pay the bare minimum in wages. The upper working class and the small business owning middle class are decimated by migration, however.
Moreover, the flow of cheap labour renders automation unnecessary, which, in turn, keeps productivity lower in the long run, and acts as a brake on working class potential prosperity. Not to mention the strain that immigration places on public services, from healthcare to schools to policing.
As these arguments are developed, the backlash against immigration will grow, and with it the prospects of ethnic conflict in the West.
Immigration and integration
Immigrants arriving in small numbers may integrate. However, in large numbers, they form ethnic enclaves - just as European expatriates in Africa frequent certain bars and restaurants to be around other Europeans, and live in neighbourhoods with many other Europeans.
Self-segregation is human nature. Europeans are going to accept that openly in the foreseeable future.
Immigration and politics
Immigration is doubly troubling at a time when much of the West has adopted DEI policies. DEI policies sometimes assign ethnic minorities quotas regardless of merit – a practice called positive discrimination or affirmative action. Or they involve pay reviews to ensure that different racial groups are paid equally regardless of skills.
This naturally increases resentment among Europeans. As the right surges (and it will if Trump is even moderately successful), these policies will be reversed.
Re-establishing equality in hiring and promotion will drive more ethnic conflict: if you are accustomed to privilege, equality feels like discrimination. And the opposition from ethnic minorities to the cancellation of DEI will remind whites that they are a separate identity and interest group.
Immigration and culture
Moreover, immigration exposes cultural differences. If one were to tell a Nigerian that their culture is the same as that of the British, the Nigerian would be offended, as that would imply that he does not have a unique culture. However, pointing out that British culture and Nigerian culture are radically different is deemed racist. And perhaps it is: affirming that different groups are indeed different does imply, obviously, that individuals are not atomised, but are at least partly defined and constrained by the group that they belong to.
It is indisputable that the way Indians operate is different from the way that Nigerians or French or Chinese or Italians operate, and that all five are different from how Germans operate, who are in turn different from the English. Group differences are real. The debate is over which differences are hereditary, and to what extent.
As any acceptance of group differences is deemed racist, that word will lose its power. Rather, being called racist will become a point of pride.
Islam
No discussion about immigration is complete without mentioning Islam. And nothing captures the West’s problem with Islam more than the fact that Christmas markets in Europe now require security, often armed. During World War I, the Christmas of 1914 triggered spontaneous truces across the frontlines.
A Muslim MP asked for a form of blasphemy law to be introduced in Britain. However, there is already a de-facto blasphemy law enforced by mob rule, as seen with the beheading of a French teacher for allegedly insulting Mohammad, the murder of Theo van Gogh in the Netherlands, and the forcing into hiding of a teacher in Batley, in Britain, for showing his class a cartoon of Mohammad during a lesson on free speech.
And who can forget the Charlie Hebdo massacre? Or the Manchester Arena bombing by the son of refugees? Or the stabbing to death of three little girls in Southport, again by the son of refugees?
Islam has always been Christianity’s main civilisational rival. The war in Gaza reminded the West again that Muslims will always side with their co-religionists against Western governments.
The West is beginning to confront the reality that Islam does not integrate into Western culture and is intrinsically hostile to it (barring some exceptional, secularised Muslim individuals). Therefore, conflicts between the West and its Muslim immigrants will grow. With Muslims being up to 10% of the French population, the scope for instability and violence there will be severe.
The Overton Window
With Sir Keir Starmer and Justin Trudeau accepting that immigration has been too high - and with Starmer going much further and saying that it was deliberate government policy, and an open-border experiment - they will now need to explain why too much immigration is bad:
Is it merely an economic question?
Do the benefits of diversity not outweigh the economic costs? Is diversity not a strength?
Are all cultures equal?
Can’t anyone just integrate into any culture?
Are those who come from non-Western cultures loyal to the West, or to their religious and ethnic kin?
Who then should Europeans be loyal to, if not their own ethnic and religious kin?
Conceding the argument on the numbers of immigrants blows open the Overton Window and paves the way for a greater debate about race, ethnicity, nationality, culture, and religion, as discussed above. And in this debate, those who argue that there are fundamental differences between cultures, religions and ethnic groups will have the upper hand, simply because the evidence leans to their side.
The future is racist
Recall that the left is a spent force among the youth. The energy and excitement are on the right.
After all, the youth are naturally rebellious. The baby boomers’ parents assumed that there was a cultural hierarchy, with some cultures better than others. The boomers challenged that and insisted that all cultures are equal.
Now, the establishment built by the boomers assumes that there is cultural equality, with school children being bombarded with messages about anti-racism, sexism, and other wokery. The youth will challenge that too, insisting that there is a cultural hierarchy.
That is why we conclude: the future is racist.
Commercial Implications:
Awareness of racial and ethnic differences at home will make them a more important issue in geopolitics. India, China and the Muslim world will be seen as civilisational competitors, not as economic partners.
Free trade will become civilisational. Trump’s threats against BRICS highlight the continued bifurcation of the world economy into a Chinese sphere and an American sphere. The Muslim world is going to be the scene of at least some of that battle, as we explain here.
India, China and parts of the Muslim world will be kicked out of the Western sphere of free trade, but BRICS will not trade freely with one another, as we explain here. Trump, for his part, will push hard to ensure free access for American companies to the American sphere of influence. European companies will be at a disadvantage due to the polycrisis that Europe faces, exemplified by Germany, as explained here.