The Defeat of the Islamic Revolution and the Future of the Islamic Republic

Scenarios post Khamenei

Iran’s strategy of exporting the Islamic Revolution has failed.

Syria’s Assad has fallen under Turkish control.

Israel thoroughly decapitated Lebanon’s Hezbollah. The group’s supply line to Iran is severed, its strategic weapons are heavily degraded. It signed an agreement to withdraw from southern Lebanon, and is under domestic pressure to fully disarm (though it is still seeking to dominate Lebanon).

Sayyid Ali Khamenei’s apparent successor, former President Ibrahim Rai’si, died in a helicopter crash. Our view is that elements within the Iranian National Security Council, including President Pezeshkian and Vice President for Strategic Affairs Zarif, are trying to weaken Khamenei’s grip on power. Elite divisions are apparent, especially given Zarif returning to prominence despite his disagreements with the Supreme Leader during his tenure as foreign minister to former President Rouhani. Pezeshkian and Zarif likely aim to sideline Mujtaba Khamenei, Ali Khamenei’s son and potential successor. Khamenei criticised negotiations with the US, but it appears that they are going ahead anyway.