Risks to Shipping in the Mediterranean

There are changes in Yemeni intentions to target shipping.

• The Ansar Allah (Houthi) Movement has said that it is planning to strike ships in the Mediterranean. They most likely do not have the ability to do so except in coordination with the Syrian government, Lebanon's Hezbollah, or Hamas in Gaza, which may have hidden capabilities still.

• The Houthi/Resistance Axis have been publicising this move for a while now. This is intentional. The idea is to make sure everyone knows what's coming in the hope that a ceasefire is agreed before the escalation happens. Recall that Iran did the same thing with regards to its coming attack on Israel - Iran said if there was a ceasefire, it would not retaliate, and waited two weeks before retaliating.

• Ansar Allah has committed to targeting ships belonging to any company that does business with Israel.

• That is, Ansar Allah are offering shipping firms a choice: either trade with Israel and have all your ships be at risk of being targeted anywhere in the Red Sea/Med/Gulf of Aden region (and possibly deeper in the Indian Ocean through Iranian support) or boycott Israel and risk the ramifications.

• So far, at least two ships have been abandoned as a result of Houthi strikes, of which one was sunk, and at least 12 damaged, with one damaged and diverted while the rest continued their route.

• The US and its allies have shown that they cannot prevent this. Airstrikes will not solve this problem - the Houthi have been fighting enemies who strike from the air since 2004.

• There is talk of reviving the proxy war through Yemeni factions against Ansar Allah, but this has failed to achieve results in the past 20 years. Why would it succeed now? Additionally, the US sponsoring groups to attack the Houthi would result in attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria. And possibly Kuwait, Jordan, and Qatar.

• If you are in insurance or shipping, and would like a free briefing, please reply to this email.