This has been a year of warfare, of deaths of civilians and combatants, of defeats and victories. The wars now drawing to a close in the Middle East seemed at one point endless, and new, unimagined ones are rearing their head. The region is being remade, with new alliances made possible and old ones breaking down.
As analysts, we have to crucify our own hopes and morality, and to think only in the coldest, most hard-hearted of ways.
Our work is based on empathy. We adopt the mindset of Syrian jihadis, of IRGC strategists, of Israeli generals, of Arab rulers, and of Western diplomats. We assume the sloth and pride of politicians, the gluttony and greed of their advisors, the envy and lust of their rivals, and the wrath of their generals.
We strive to see the world as they see it. If we do our work well, their demons may become our demons. Staring at the Middle East for long enough can convince one of the truth of Original Sin, and of the presence raw, untempered Evil.
Yet, that is no cause for despair.
Christ was born in a time of empires, rebellions, and wars. Somehow, our salvation was underway, even as St Joseph and St Mary fled King Herod’s Slaughter of the Innocents. What a discombobulating mystery.
For three centuries after the birth of Jesus, those who carried the Christian message of hope, of charity, of love for neighbour and enemy alike, of forgiveness, and of faith, suffered horrendous persecutions. Then Rome herself converted.
In some parts of the world, the murders and persecutions continue.
In others, they are being renewed.
In other still, it is Christians who do the persecuting.
And yet, with every Christmas, with every Easter, with every day, Hope springs anew. Always and everywhere, it is the same message that carries the only true hope for peace: love your enemy, remove the beam from your own eye, turn the other cheek.
It was these realisations that converted me to Christianity.
Now I pray that I practice what I believe, that my work is done with empathy and love, and that the understanding that I try to bring somehow can be used for peace.
Happy Christmas. May the new year bring peace and joy, to you and your loved ones.