Jordan: On the Brink
The fragility of the Jordanian regime is intensified by Trump's actions.
Commercial Summary: For the duration of the Trump presidency, as Trump pursues a Greater Israel plan, we see a severe risk of politically destabilising unrest in Jordan, that can lead to the overthrow of the Hashemite monarchy, or to civil war. This significantly raises currency, non-payment and cargo risks.
With Donald Trump cutting foreign aid and UNRWA funding, one of the casualties is Jordan. The monarchy’s economy had lost much of its tourism income due to the conflict in Israel. The security situation was worsening due to Syria, with Islamist jihadis feeling emboldened. Now, Trump has reduced funding to a large portion of Jordan’s professional and expatriate groups, who work with foreign NGOs, the United Nations, and other development bodies to provide aid to Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. Already, Jordan’s official unemployment rate is 21.5%. With these spending cuts, this is going to worsen, hitting what is left of the Jordanian middle class, and removing expatriate money that keeps what is left of the tourism sector functioning.
The Jordanian state fended off unrest from 2011, when protests began against the corruption of King Abdullah, his wife, and those around them. Since then, however, the state has been unable to offer anything meaningful. Elections are held regularly, mostly for entertainment. Parliament decides nothing. Critically, every election is won decisively by the Muslim Brotherhood, which receives more votes than any other group, and which would easily win any election in which the electoral system was not rigged against it as it is now.
The monarchy and the security establishment, not Parliament or the cabinet, are in control of decision making, but they are unable to offer investments or social transformation as the state is perennially broke.
Corruption is rife and is impossible to address without risking political stability: if the King’s supporters are exposed, it would harm his image and reduce support to him. Corruption is culturally entrenched.
And the Crown Prince is not particularly well-regarded. Meaning that there is no hope of improvement for the public. This hopelessness motivates unrest.
With Trump threatening to displace Gazans, this means, to the Jordanians, that he also wants to displace the Palestinians of the West Bank. Moreover, with an Israeli campaign against militants in the West Bank in full swing, to remove threats from Hamas and the Islamic Jihad, Jordan’s own Palestinians are affected: Jordan is 70% Palestinians from the West Bank and other parts of mandate Palestine. Palestinian families in Jordan still have relatives in the West Bank, who are likely suffering casualties as a result of Israeli operations.
It is worth recalling that the late King Hussein, Abdullah’s father, was on the CIA’s payroll, and that the Hashemite royal family is part of the existing American security establishment.
With Trump offering fundamentally different policies from those of the establishment, including turning Jordan into the Palestinian homeland, keeping the Hashemites on their throne may no longer satisfy the pro-Israel hawks Trump has appointed.
Critically, when Trump cut foreign aid, he kept it for Egypt and Israel. Not Jordan, however. Additional pressure may be applied to Jordan to force it to accept Trump’s Palestinian displacement plan, but this would be highly destabilising.
Commercial Implications:
Implications for cargo, aviation, and non-payment are discussed below.