Jordan and the Israel – Gaza War
How American and Israeli policies push Jordan closer to Iran.
Context
The geopolitical function of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is to create a buffer between powerful Arab states, such as Iraq, Syria and Saudi Arabia, and the state of Israel, and to host Palestinian refugees expelled by Israel in 1948 and 1967. Jordan’s East Bank tribes, who are the backbone of the monarchy, were placed under the command of the Hashemites. These are descendants of the prophet of Islam, formerly rulers of Mecca, who were also loyal allies of the British Empire and then the United States. Their reign was intended to keep those tribes in line and to prevent Israel’s longest land border from being in the hands of a larger and potentially hostile power. The monarchy rewarded these tribes by ensuring that their children would control the commanding heights of the military, intelligence, civil service and security forces. By relying on the tribes, the Hashemites were able to control the Palestinians of the West Bank, which Jordan ruled until 1967, and 1948 Palestinian refugees. The Hashemites relied on their direct descent from the prophet of Islam, Mohammad, and were appointed custodians over Jerusalem’s holy places. Thus, they were able to rule through a combination of economic legitimacy, tribal alliances and religious legitimacy.
American recklessness
Under Presidents George W Bush, Barak Obama and Donald Trump, the US failed to grasp the constituent parts of Jordan’s legitimacy and stability. Instead, they toyed with the country.
First, Bush removed Iraq as a buffer between Israel, Jordan and Iran, allowing Iran’s militias to operate along the Jordanian border. Then the US failed to keep Iran out of Syria. Suddenly, Jordan was vulnerable to an Iranian pincer, and became a much weaker buffer facing Iran, a much stronger foe of Israel’s than Iraq.
Second, rather than continuing economic aid to Jordan to maintain a welfare state for the East Bank Jordanian Bedouins, Jordan was forced to undergo economic reforms to modernise the economy, including cuts to the civil service and privatisations. These made sense on paper, but they meant the regime became unable to reward the tribes properly. As a result, the East Bank tribal community is increasingly resentful of King Abdullah II, with frequent protests over corruption and living standards. So far, the authorities have handled these protests quite deftly.
Third, the US under President Trump helped Saudi Arabia and the UAE in their efforts to undermine Jordan’s role as custodian of Christian and Muslim holy sites in Jerusalem. It appeared that these countries thought that they could control the religious establishment in Jerusalem and use that to make Israel more dependent on them, and therefore gain points with the United States. Additionally, Jordan was understandably angered by US President Donald Trump’s decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, as that appeared to assist Israel’s efforts to Judaise (or re-Judaise, depending on your perspective) Jerusalem, which is seen by much of the global Muslim community as an affront.
Thus, the three pillars of Jordan’s viability as a state – buffer role, ties with the tribes and religious legitimacy – were shaken by reckless US policies which extended over a period of twenty years, through Republican and Democratic administrations.
Furthermore, Israel’s ongoing attempts to annex the West Bank in full and to expel the remaining West Bank Palestinians to Jordan are a major threat. Jordan fears that the number of Palestinians would grow so large that it would be impossible for the crown to maintain the delicate balancing act between the East Bank tribesmen and West Bank sedentary Arabs. It also fears that allowing another expulsion of the Palestinians would make the crown appear so weak that it gets overthrown through mass unrest. Already, security forces are struggling to keep Jordanians from attempting to cross the border with Israel to enter the West Bank and join the insurgency there. Jordan needs the situation to stabilise to avoid having its security forces fighting its own population.
Outlook
More than any other country in the Middle East, Jordan is existentially threatened by the recent events. It cannot fight protesters to defend Israeli interests in Jordan indefinitely, and therefore, a long war in Gaza, or a regional war, is not in its interests. Furthermore, if there is another insurgency in the West Bank, the pressure from the Palestinian population to support it would be overwhelming. However, for some Israeli politicians, Jordan’s stability is not a concern – they appear willing to accept chaos in Jordan so long as the land from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea is under Jewish rule. This is simply reckless. Israel needs its longest land border stable, given its lack of strategic depth and the possibility that chaos in Jordan would further Iranian interests.