Israel - Lebanon: Go to shelters, now.
We advise clients in Lebanon and Israel to seek shelter as the risk of escalation is severe in the next few hours. Israel has already made the decision to go to war.
On 17 September, Israel somehow caused several thousand pagers used by Hezbollah to explode. It is unclear how, mechanically, this was achieved.
Also on 17 September, the Israeli security cabinet approved the expansion of the war goals to include retruning Israeli citizens to the north, implicitly approving a war with Lebanon. We view an expanded war as inevitable.
The Lebanese ministry of health reports that there were 2,800 injuries, including 180 requiring surgery or in critical condition, and 9 deaths, of which at least one was a child. Among those killed is the son of Hezbollah MP Ali Ammar, though his role in the group is unclear. This is the second son of a Hezbollah MP to be killed in this war.
Those with pagers are likely to be mid- to senior-level commanders, not frontline soldiers. They are also likely to include individuals in Hezbollah’s healthcare, political and media arms, not just its military wing, as the group would want these individuals to keep operating even in a war.
The Iranian ambassador to Lebanon was among those injured, indicating that these devices were being used by senior personnel throughout the Resistance Axis.
Israel’s window of opportunity
The strike most likely severely impaced Hezbollah and left it off-balance, albeit only temporarily. Images on social media suggest a fair number of men in their 40s and 50s, though with most being in their 30s and 20s. It is reasonable to assume that the older men to be in more senior positions, and the young men to be in mostly combat roles. It is unclear what proportion of the mid-level command was injured, or what the ratio of combatant to non-combatant injured is. Not all Hezbollah pagers exploded, according to media statements, meaning that there are many who are unaffected.
That said, these commanders are absolutley necessary for the functioning of the group. Their injuries will disrupt their ability to operate, and their presence in hospitals all at once is a major security risk for the group. Moreover, the chaos caused is likely to trigger an increase in communications within the group, creating more intelligence collection opportunities. This creates a perfect opportunity for Israel to strike. The window to do so is narrow - with the vast majority of injuries being non-critical, this suggests that most operatives will be able to return to their duties within days, if not less.
Implications
Hezbollah media is insisting that the group will not be drawn into a war unnecessarily. The key risk is that Israel will initiate an air campaign tonight intended to destroy at least some of Hezbollah’s strategic stockpiles before a full-scale war begins. We therefore advice clients and readers to remain close to shelters and away from any Shi’a religious buildings, and from hospitals, educational institituions associated with Hezbollah, warehouses, and industrial facilties, as these would likely be targeted in the opening salvoes of any attack. Hezbollah’s policy has been to retaliate in kind, and so an expansion of airstrikes will very likely lead to Hezbollah launching rockets far deeper into Israel, with the Golan Heights, Haifa, Safad, and Nahariya being near the top of its expanded target list.
We note that, with Israel having expanded the war objectives to include Lebanon, the decision to go to war has been made. Increased escalation is almost certain.