Israel-Hezbollah Escalation
Israel likely received US support for a limited campaign against Hezbollah, but there is no reason to expect it to remain limited.
Executive Summary
Contrary to popular perception, this region is ruled by cold-hearted bastards, not reckless hotheads. We therefore assume that Israel has US support to escalate the confrontation with Hezbollah, with Israel and the US accepting the risk that this escalation may not remain contained, regardless of the death of 12 Syrian Druse on 27 July.
…