European Red Sea shipping and David’s Sling
“Shock and Awe” vs “Strategic Surprises”: Military Tactics and the Shock Awaiting European Shipping.
Commercial Summary: It is most likely that Ansar Allah are using only a portion of their capabilities, with the rest held in reserve. Their intention will be to impose a much higher than expected cost when least expected in order to force an end to the Gaza conflict. To this end, they will likely expand their targeting of European shipping if the EU’s naval mission takes a military role in protecting shipping headed towards Israel, or US and UK shipping.
There is a difference between the fighting strategies of the West and those of its Iran-backed rivals in the Middle East. The West has in the last two decades begun its wars with “Shock and Awe”: a massive demonstration of capabilities intended to overwhelm and intimidate the enemy and sap its will to fight. “Shock and Awe” relies on a combination of accurate intelligence about key strategic targets, overwhelming air superiority, and precision targeting. The enemy’s key assets are neutralised in a matter of days. The enemy is reminded that it can be hit anywhere with overwhelming firepower. Its will to fight is therefore sucked out.
The fighting style of the West's enemies has adapted to “Shock and Awe”. First, through Faith, the West's rivals have learned to gird their loins, screw their courage to the sticking place, brace for a massive first strike, and then keep fighting. Second, they learned to disperse their key assets and place them underground to deny the West its aerial advantage (just look at Hamas’ tunnel network and Iran’s underground bases). Third, they learned to rely on communication systems that are invulnerable to Western interception - meaning that they can continue communicating in a way that denies the West its intelligence collection superiority (Hamas’ units are still in contact with their commanders even after five months of bombardment). Fourth, they learned to husband military power and use it sparingly (see below). Fifth, they learned to maintain the ability to collect intelligence even after some command and control targets have been destroyed. (Witness how the Houthi are still able to gather intelligence on ships, or how Hamas maintains units behind Israeli lines for weeks, to attack when the time is right). Sixth, they adopted their own “David’s Sling” demoralisation tactics.
Faith vs Firepower
Rather than “shock and awe” their opponents to demoralise them with a massive first strike, the modern West's Iran-led enemies attempt a different kind of demoralisation. They seek to survive massive onslaughts, and to maintain the ability to inflict pain suddenly and sharply - as though using a sling - in a manner that makes Western planners ask: "They can still do that?! Then what was the point?!”.
Thus, strategic surprises that use crude but effective capabilities become more potent than “Shock and Awe”, in that they demonstrate to modern Western planners that their work has been pointless, and that continuing the battle will yield no results. The Iran-led side can then force the initiation of a political process, which it peppers with further strategic surprises, intended to impose its terms. Thus, faith prevails over firepower.
This may be termed the “David’s Sling” effect. A materially weak party, inspired by faith, fells one of its enemy’s Goliaths. In doing so, it demoralises the militarily superior Philistines, both ancient and modern, and puts them to flight. Recall that the Philistines still had an army superior to Israel’s. Yet they lost.
Faith and war
Using faith, shock and awe is inverted psychologically by the defenders, who say to one another: "You have already borne so much, and the enemy is nearly worn out. Victory is but an hour away. Patience." Thus, the West's “Shock and Awe” tactic is rendered irrelevant, except against already demoralised, mostly secular societies, like Saddam’s Iraq. And against such societies, that are confident in their material capabilities but not in God, the “David’s Sling” effect, that is, the use of strategic surprises that demonstrate resolve and continued capability to develop ingenuous military solutions, is perhaps more effective than “Shock and Awe”. Furthermore, such attacks demonstrate to the defending party that its leadership is still in control, that it can still inflict pain on its enemies, that the battle is far from over, and that patience and steadfastness are bearing fruit. The nullification of effects of “Shock and Awe” on morale is thus completed.
It is worth recalling that democracy is by its nature an impatient system. It does not lend itself to extended wars of will, unless society is cohesive and driven by shared faith, as was the case in the US and Britain during WWI and WWII. In a democracy, the incumbent is asked at every election, “what have you achieved lately”, and, in the age of mass media, must demonstrate something materially spectacular to address this question. The “Shock and Awe” doctrine reflects that impatience, in that it seeks to eliminate the enemy in one fell swoop. A theocentric regime, by contrast, is focused on fortitude, patience, steadfastness, resolve and planning for the afterlife. It is more capable of withstanding “Shock and Awe” and dissipating its effects through various “David’s Slings”. It is better suited for slow, grinding, long term conflict.
Modern David’s Slings
In recent days and years, we saw several examples of David’s Sling:
Hamas and Islamic Jihad escalated their missile strikes into Ashkelon, firing missiles into the city for three consecutive days. They showed Israel the futility of its military campaign, and that they can force Israelis to leave their homes just as Israel is forcing Gazans to leave their homes. They made clear that so long as Gazans were not back home, Israelis would not be able to return to the Gaza Envelop.
Ansar Allah (the Houthi) conducted fresh attacks on shipping, nearly sinking the Rubymar, and in doing so showing the limitations of US and British airstrikes. Before the strikes, ships were not being sunk. Now, they are.
Hezbollah struck Israel's main northern command base in Safad, despite daily exchanges of fire with Israel and regular Israeli bombardment.
And the Iraqi resistance fired missiles into the Golan Heights, despite Israel conducting strikes against its positions in Syria regularly since 2015 at least.
Finally, did steady casualties inflicted by the Taliban on both the Afghan security forces and the US not force the US out of Afghanistan? Are the Houthi’s, Hamas’ and Hizbullah’s low tech missiles and drones not comparable to David’s Sling? Is the US Air Force not a Goliath?
All these attacks were nowhere near as potent as the US’ onslaught against Iraqi military and civilian targets in its 2003 “shock and awe” campaign, or as Israel’s steady bombardment of civilian and military targets in Gaza. But they all used the “David’s Sling” principle – “we can attack you where it hurts and show that your material superiority is irrelevant”. They all reinforce the “faith over firepower” mantra.
Commercial Impact:
But what does this have to do with European shipping?
The EU has launched operation Aspides, hosted by Greece and with participation from Germany, Italy and France. The involved countries may expand to include Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands and others.