Erdogan's jihadis and the new borders of the Middle East
After his shared victory with Israel in the Syrian civil war, Erdogan has thousands of foreign fighters that his intelligence services can clandestinely move around the region, and the world.
Commercial Summary: President Erdogan has access to an army of jihadis in Syria, which he needs to deploy somewhere to keep them from destabilising his Syrian project. His most likely option is Iraq, rather than Libya or Ukraine. Eventually, there is likely to be some kind of international conference to redraw borders in the Middle East and Europe, including Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Israel, and Ukraine and its neighbours.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking to turn Turkey into a global power by enhancing its influence throughout the Muslim world, starting with its near abroad.
With the fall of the Syrian government, Erdogan has access to at least several thousand foreign fighters in Syria. Keeping them in Syria as Hayat Tahrir (HTS) al-Sham leader Ahmed al-Shara’ (Abu Mohammad al-Jolani) attempts to organise elections - which jihadis view as illegitimate and as polytheistic - may be severely destabilising for Syria. This would be especially so after Turkey defeats the Syrian Democratic Forces - a front for the PKK - in eastern Syria, as the SDF hold thousands of Islamic State fighters and their families.
Recall that the Turks had continuous communication with Islamic State through MiT, which was led at the time by Hakkan Fidan, the current Turkish foreign minister and Erdogan’s possible successor. While Turkey is unlikely to fully control these jihadi elements, it will have significant influence over them.
Furthermore, it is obvious that Assad and his forces decided to no longer fight in Syria. It is not obvious why. Our view is that there was some sort of Russian-Turkish deal. Statements from Shara’, commander of HTS and now de-facto leader of Syria, suggest as much. Shara’ has said that Russia can keep its bases in Syria, subject to renegotiation of some terms, and that Syria has longstanding strategic ties with Russia that will not suddenly dissolve. Given the role of the Russian air force in holding the former Syrian opposition back, these are quite startling statements.
As for Iran, since it was not on the table for this agreement, it will be on the menu.
Commercial Implications:
From a security perspective, what makes most sense for Turkey is to focus first on the Syrian Democratic Forces, which may take up to a year to be defeated. However, getting good timelines for when wars end has proven to be notoriously difficult. The question is what comes after the SDF.