Empire and Revolution
The thread that binds migration, green energy, grooming gangs, Musk's calls for liberating Britain, and Trump's claims on Greenland, Panama and Canada.
Commercial Summary: In the coming four years, the Trump administration will use America’s expertise in colour revolutions and election interference against America’s allies and neighbours. This will reverse the liberal left wing consensus that has dominated Western politics, but the left will not go without a (literal) fight. Such a change will also have commercial implications for a range of industries. In Europe, this will raise the risk of unrest by Muslim migrants.
“It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal”.
Henry Kissinger.
We will start this piece with a few assertions. We are happy to discuss them with readers and clients, but, for the sake of brevity, we will treat them as givens:
We are in the Clash of Civilisations world. Russia, China, India and perhaps Turkey have now risen as civilisational leaders. To deal with this world, the US must assert itself as the leader of the Western civilisation.
The US is in a transitory phase: the American Republic is dying, the American Empire is being born. This will require whoever ends up in charge of the Empire to consolidate control over the provinces.
The consolidation of the American Empire requires the delineation of spheres of influence with Russia and China, keeping Russia and China from drawing too close to each other, and especially, keeping Russia and China out of the American Empire’s provinces.
Europe, Canada, Australia, Israel, Mexico, Latin America, and New Zealand are the American Empire’s provinces. In the West - including the Western Hemisphere and majority-European countries - only America is truly sovereign. The rest are vassals.
The American government is extremely capable when it comes to launching Colour Revolutions. There is a template, involving creating partly-factual wedge issues, feeding outrage, deploying media and social media, triggering unrest, creating favourable narratives around protesters, and then unseating an unwanted government.
Colour Revolutions are extremely difficult in countries with popular, legitimate governments.
Australia, Canada, Great Britain, and most of Western Europe do not have popular, legitimate, governments. Rather, Western governments have delegitimised themselves in the eyes of large swathes of the public by embracing Net Zero, immigration, multiculturalism, and wokeness, and by tolerating unimaginable crimes from newly arrived minorities.
In light of the above, our view is that Musk’s attacks on the regimes of Germany and Britain is just the beginning, and that Trump is dead serious about annexing Canada and Greenland and controlling Panama. Much, much more is coming.
Outlook
Our view is that, over the course of the next four years, Trump’s administration will attempt Colour Revolutions and elections interference in Western and Latin American allied and rival countries. This will involve the use of media, social media, intelligence leaks, and smear campaign, to affect election outcomes and/or instigate street unrest against incumbents that Trump does not like. The intent will be to bring down governments that are seen as unhelpful to Trump or resistant to his demands, through elections or through mass unrest.
Our view is that countries on the US’ priority target list for imperial consolidation likely include Germany, Britain, France, Australia, Mexico, Canada, Panama and Denmark:
Germany
As the heavyweight in Europe and the EU, Germany needs to be brought to heel on questions of energy, Ukraine, Russia, foreign aid, defence spending, and much more. Germany is the most influential player in the EU, and where Germany goes the EU mostly follows. Recall that the EU was intended to help solidify American power over Europe. Now it has become an obstacle to American businesses and a bastion of the left, meaning that it has outlived its usefulness. Furthermore, as a main backer of Ukraine, the current German government is an obstacle to peace.
Great Britain
As the US’ most important military partner and the second or third Western military power (degraded as Britain’s power is), Britain needs to align closely with the US, including with Trump. The British liberal establishment is toxic and gives horrendous ideas to supposed conservative parties throughout the Anglosphere. British backing for Ukraine also needs to end, as far as Trump is concerned. This is the context animating Musk’s attacks on Sir Keir Starmer and his role in the grooming gangs scandal.
Panama
Given that drugs and migrant caravans are moving up and down Central America, and the fact that the Panama Canal is strategically critical in any conflict with China, the US wants to consolidate there. Trump is almost certainly willing to send troops into Panama to control the Canal. If that happens, a key question would be whether Russia and China would back a Panamanian insurgency via Colombia’s left wing government, or whether Trump’s administration would succeed in neutralising Colombia’s leftist president.
Denmark and Greenland
Become a paid subscriber to see more detailed commercial implications, including on the investment environment and supply chains, a discussion on how the attempted annexation of Canada may play out, the nature of expected unrest, terrorism risks in the US and the West, and other topics.