Ceasefire or escalation, a new normal has taken hold in the Middle East

Iran is holding back its retaliation while waiting for Hamas - Israel ceasefire negotiations. In either case, this war has changed the region permanently, and future rounds are likely to be similar.

Commercial summary: in the coming few days, there will either be a ceasefire, which would all but guarantee Hamas’ survival and political victory, or a major escalation. Escalation would severely damage Israeli ports, power stations, airports and other critical infrastructure. This may draw the US into the conflict. Watch for how the US responds to an i…