Attack on Iranian consulate in Damascus

Iran will respond in Jordan and against Israeli ports, while trying to remain below the threshold of war.

Incident: Israel attacked Iran’s consulate in Damascus on 1 April, killing several IRGC commanders.

Commercial Summary: Iran most likely will retaliate by pressuring Jordan, and perhaps striking cargo in Saudi Arabia, the UAE or Jordan that it can claim is going to Israel overland. It will also increase its attacks via Iraqi proxies targeting Israeli po…